What will be the Polyester Bottle Chips Price Trend after Rise?

 

    The reasons were as follows: first, the most important point was most purchasers had stocks. The downstream factories were mostly consuming stocks, and the current price was 500 Yuan/Ton higher than previous time, the price strength did not exist again; Second, the cost increased dramatically and in order to transfer the pressure and reduce loss, polyester factories intended to keep price; third, the stock of polyester bottle chips factories was low, and the factories were reluctant to sell out, now the shipment mood in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was cautious.

    Can this round of price boom maintain?

    First, PTA futures price influenced polyester products price obviously. After PTA futures recorded the new high of 7,900 Yuan, it began to drop and had already dropped below 60 days average line, in addition, PTA futures price was difficult to increase. The analysis showed that the related coefficient of PTA futures and spot goods of polyester chips was 0.9691. On spot market, many polyester factories paid close attentions to futures market trend in order to follow with.

    Second, the demand of polyester bottle chips reduced and unbalance of supply and demand increased gradually. The data from National Bureau of Statistics showed that the growth speed of output of soft drink was only 10.7% from Jan to May in 2012, which was far less than the corresponding period. If calculating by this growth speed, the domestic demand perhaps was only 3.43 million tons in the whole year, which was 330,000 tons higher than last year. However, the growth speed of polyester bottle chips production capacity was more than the demand growth speed, at present, the polyester bottle chips production capacity accounted the whole polyester capacity for 19.3%. According to preliminary statistics, production capacity increased 320,000 tons only in the first half year compared with 2011, which can offset the demand growth in a whole year, so how the production capacity of the latter half of the year can be consumed?

    Third, the macro economy situation was still bad. Although the European summit brought good news to the market, but as times went by, good influence was gradually exhausted, and actual effect remained to be proven. And on 17th July, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke testified before U.S. congress, which didn’t hint QE3 that some investors had expected, made the market disappointed and once the U.S. dollar up. In terms of domestic market, the economic data introduced in succession was not ideal, showing the economy recovery was still far off.

    In general, although at present the cost push function of polyester bottle chips still existed, but synthesized the bad influence above, the rise in price would face obvious resistance, so a slight drop would be imperative, and we should pay close attention to the futures market trends and downstream demand.