The PFY enterprise inventory will decide the market trend
Author: Feb 10, 2012 09:53
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The dispute of America and Iran was close to the tension at the beginning of 2012, whether the upstream raw material market or downstream textile market were talking about the war will influence on oil prices. However, when the PSF price was rising, PFY has not appeared promising performance; it was mainly subject to the equipment-load which it remains higher for a long time. So what is the market tendency of the polyester filament yarn later?
Firstly, the production limitation of the polyester staple fiber in the fourth quarter of 2011 was unable to endure the pressures of negative profit, while PSF profits had already appear bigger improvement recently. Under the temptation of such higher profits, the polyester staple fiber enterprise was unavoidable to enhance the operation rate later. Once the supply quantity increased, the initiative of PSF enterprise may not necessarily stronger than PFY enterprise.
Secondly, in the aspect of cost factor, due to the dispute between America and Iraq, which the crude oil prices always maintain higher; at the same time, because it has a certain disputes in the contract terms of crude oil, China has been reduced to import crude oil from Iran in the earlier this year. But most of public opinion thinks that the fight between America and Iraq is hard to cause a great disturbance, so the crude oil price did not appear great rise in the early. However, what’s worse, south Sudan announced that they will overall stop to producing the oil from January 28th. Although their daily output of the crude oil is only 350,000 barrels, but multiple geopolitical factors combined with the policy power will cause crude oil prices appear more changeable. The shutdown of south Sudan will lead to Asia refinery that the raw material supply is more nervous, the main buyers China and Japan will search for the alternative goods, and the possibility of further push oil prices is quite high. Once the crude oil prices appear to rise and the product of downstream industry chain will also appear to rise.
Thirdly, it was expected PTA will appear rapid growth situation in 2012, now it seems not so. Since China-Zhuhai BP was expanded PTA production at the beginning of this year, to may not appear before and after almost PTA new production capacity; even before and after May, it hardly to be appeared the new production capacity of PTA; although China-Tongkun and the Far East which they can be put into production on schedule, and the actual source that enter into the market would appear in the third quarter, so the PTA market is nearly no increase of production in the first half of this year.
At present, the downstream textile industry which it faced with bad situation, but back to the second half of 2011, when the textile industry is also faced with the difficult situation, and PET fiber especially polyester filament yarn which it still appears the obvious growth.
Only from the current situation of home textile industry to see, in accordance with the inventory turnover situation of some enterprise in particular period, which the inventory reached the top and gradually appeared the decline situation in 2011, but some enterprises for the same period in 2011 that the inventory days still higher than 2010 or former years. However, the downstream textile enterprise started to work a bit slowly after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand if it can’t concentrate on sales in the short term, and it will cause the negative effects on the transfer inventory of PFY enterprise.
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Editor: sunny From: 168Tex.com
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