Weak Demand PTA Market is Not Optimistic
Author: Feb 03, 2012 08:58
|
2011, PTA price firstly up increased then fall down on the general. 2012, Asian PTA upstream and downstream industry chain will expand in olive shaped pattern, which will keep Asian PX price firm, and support PTA on cost. But, in 2012, there are a great many PTA capacity put into production around Asia, especially in China. It is another peak time of capacity growth since 2006. The end market demand is weak, which makes it difficult for upstream price increase to transfer to the downstream. PTA price is expected to rise during the spring. 2012, PTA price may stay high in the beginning and fall down later. Its price may range from 6600CNY/t- 9900CNY/t.
PX is in short supply. PTA cost support is relative firm. 2012, Asian PX price may continue the tight pattern of 2011. PX may maintain a considerable profit margin. 2012, Asian PX capacity is mainly in domestic area. The newly added capacity is accumulated to 2.1 million. In compare with that of 2012, there will be over 10 million PTA capacity. PX short supply will be continued and PX price will still be firm to be a strong cost support of PTA. Meanwhile, for the middle east area is in turmoil, PX and PTA price may probably boosted up in March and April.
PTA price may be curbed by over supply. 2012, there will be 12.6 ton new capacity put into production, among which, China add 11.4 ton, it takes 56.83% of the total newly added amount. In contrast with PTA capacity massively increased, downstream capacity increase is not that large. This year, domestic PET capacity increase is estimated around 6~7 million ton. There is a gap of 6 million ton, comparing with PTA. See from end textile and garment demand, China garment export growth is estimated to slow down. Europe, as the biggest market, for the debt crisis, the shock is large. While domestic textile and garment sale growth decline, and the cumbrance of real estate to home textile industry, it is still hard to be optimistic. PTA suffered from pressure of supply and demand, in addition with a narrowed demand, profit margin is further narrowed. And it is probably to stay on the edge of loss and breakeven point.
Generally speaking, downstream market and end demand is not optimistic this year, but provisionally price rebound is still expectable. See from PTA, PET capacity release, it is focused in the first half of year, and rigid demand will support PTA price. During the end of last year, foreign trade orders are greatly reduced, and after the spring festival, trade orders have recovered to some extent. The traditional busy season of March and April may provisionally boost PTA price up.
New York crude oil price change range of the year is $80~120$/bbl, on the basis of which, PTA cost range is 6937-9384CNY/t. Counting on the pressure of PTA capacity release, and for the influence of global economic decline, and in contrast with that of 2006 and 2007, PTA is probably to lose by 200CNY/t~300CNY/t. But if the situation become optimistic, and the debt crisis eased, in addition with busy season factor, PTA price may still be boosted up, with a profit margin around 500CNY/t. Therefore, taking all the loss and benefit situation, PTA price of the year may range from 6600CNY/t~9900CNY/t.
|
Editor: Candy From: 168Tex.com
Most Read