The summary of China's textile trade in the third quarter
Author: Dec 08, 2011 10:56
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The global consumptive confidence index has decline in common, China's textile export quantity growth dropped sharply
From January to September in 2011, it is estimated that China’s textile and garment export prices increased by 22% year on year. If only from the export volume of view, excluding the reason of rising prices, China's textile and garment exports quantity only increased by 2% or so, the growth rate has fallen sharply, compared with the same period of last year. In this year of textile and garment export growth, which the export quantity of growth contributions are only 10%, its contributions dropped significantly compared with 2010. As you see, the international market for China's textile and apparel import demand appears the trend of fatigue.
From the international market demands to see, since the middle of 2011, the world's negative economic news reports, the U.S. and European economic activity weaker than expected, the Japanese economy continuous three quarters of negative growth, the European sovereign debt crisis deepened, American sovereignty credit rating was cut, the developed countries highlights the high-risk debt, national inflation pressures; and the international financial market violent oscillation and so on. In these material adverse factors impact, the instability of world economic recovery increased significantly. China's textile and garment exports perform fatigue by the influence of the global consumption downturn.
【The United States】the consumptive sentiment slipped, and the import demand slowed down
The domestic consumption market downturn in the United States, which it will affect the demand for imports. From January to September in 2011, the United States import textile and garments increased 11.33% from the global textile imports year on year; the growth rate has slowed 1.5%, compared with the same period of last year, and it is lower than 1.7% in the first quarter. Which imports from China textile and garments rose by only 7.89%, it is far below the United States from the world and India, Vietnam, Pakistan and other major competitor countries textile and apparel import growth.
In the American economic growth weak and unemployment rate high, the consumptive sentiment declines significantly in the United States population. According to the data shows, in October, the U.S. consumer confidence index from September's 46.4 fell to 39.8, which is the lowest level since March 2009. The United States consumer federation also released recently to the national credit cooperatives association jointly carrying out of the national holiday consumption survey report. Data shows that 37% of respondents believed that the financial situation is less than last year, it is higher 7% than the previous year; 41% of respondents said they would be reduce costs in the upcoming holiday shopping season. From 2000 to 2007, this ratio is usually below 30%.
【Europe】It deepen crisis and the consumption is difficult to face dawn
By the European textile and garment consumption demand slowdown, China's textile and garment exports to the EU have shown a slow growth trend. According to China’s Customs statistics, from January to September in 2011, China's textile and garment exports to the EU arrived $ 42.8 billion, and increased 25.8%, the growth rate slipped down 2.5 percentage points, compared with the first half of the year.
In recent years the European economy is extremely weak, there is no obvious point of support and growth, and it can’t support the European countries large debts. In the financial crisis, economic development stagnant or even negative growth, social welfare spending has not reduced relatively, resulting in not enough wealthy in this fiscal worse, the deficit soared, leading to the debt crisis.
【Japan】The deflation is troubled and economy is expected to slump
Since this year, although China's textile and garment exports to Japan maintain a rapid growth rate, while from the general trends to see, the Japanese textile and garment import demand indeed have slowed movements. From January to September in 2011, according to China Customs statistics showed that China's textile and apparel exports to Japan totaled $ 20.61 billion, and increased by 25.5% year on year, the sped of growth dropped 0.06%, compared with from January to August.
According to the Japanese relevant authorities for textile fashion industry survey shows that, the summer heat and the special needs of disaster after the peak, consumption once again hit rock bottom. The survey questionnaire participate in industries including fiber fabrics manufacturer, fabrics processing factory and textile commercial communities, its total is 23 companies, possesses 43 companies of clothing manufacturers and wholesale companies, 12 companies of fashion accessories enterprise, and 47 companies of retail and developers, totaling 125 enterprises. The survey shows that three quarters of the fashion consumption compared with the second quarter the "rise" of less than 40%; thinking the fourth quarter will be "rose" accounted for only 25% of the whole questionnaire. For the overall confidence index, enterprise think that the third quarter than the second quarter, "increase" accounted for 40.3%.More than half of the respondents believe that the previous or future confidence index showed "low" or even "no change." The majority of enterprises are pessimistic about the index of consumer confidence. More than 60% of the company thinks that the fashion consumption will not be much change in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter, 35% of these enterprises in the third quarter that the recovery momentum will be continued.
【The Developing Countries】consumer confidence keeps strong, and the market demand sufficient
According to China’s Customs data, from January to September 2011, China's textile and apparel exports to ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) arrived at 14.43 billion us dollars, increasing 41.32% year on year, the speed of growth accelerated by 0.45% than the first half of the year; it exports 10.2 billion for Africa, increasing 24.6% year on year, and the speed of growth accelerated by 4.93% than the first half of the year.
In the major developed economies by the economic development weakness, troubled by the pressure of debt, while consumer confidence in developing countries is very strong. According to Nielsen announced the third quarter of 2011 Global Consumer Confidence Index shows that in the 56 surveyed economies, countries with the highest consumer confidence index is India, the index is 121; South Africa ranked No. 2. In addition to India, China and Hong Kong, the top 10 also including Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Malaysia. Visibly, the confidence of the consumer market is plentifully in the developing countries.
Guess: the demand of foreign order is expected to improve?
The current global economic recovery is not out of the track, which it is encountered new challenges. The world economy is facing the main risks, including: the European debt crisis may have sharpened; bank’s balance sheet problems intensified; more companies to reduce inventory due to weak consumption; the developed countries of the unemployment rate remain higher, etc.. These unfavorable factors are difficult to improve in the short term, it will continue to hinder the recovery of world economy and global trade growth, and it also makes resistance for China's textile and garment export growth.
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Editor: sunny From: 168Tex.com
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