The Rebound of PTA is Still Lack of sustainability
Author: Nov 23, 2011 11:09
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At present, PTA manufacturers keep price unchangeable through examine and repair machine, which the resulting effect is relatively limited. Along with the European debt crisis continued to deepen, PTA cost support weakening and the downstream demand shrinking, PTA oscillation weak pattern in hard to be changed in the later.
Enter into November, as a whole, the domestic PTA futures showed the oscillation bottoms. On 22nd Nov., when the domestic futures market keep silence in partial empty atmosphere, while PTA main force 1205 contrarian rise, it is nearly up to 11 million hand during one day, so that the PTA total is more than 60 million hand, and record a new higher since listing, and the differences gradually increased during two sides.
The European debt crisis spread to the core countries
The European debt crisis will always be accompanied by turmoil of the global financial market, which the negative effects will become more and more obvious. Following Greece and Italy, the Spanish government also appears replacement, and the domestic debt problem disadvantage is the fuse of these leaders step down, meanwhile, the new government came to power can not solve the deeper the spread of the debt crisis. Over time, the Italian national debt market is only their own bank and the European Central Bank is net buyers, while most investors choose to sell, this shows that the market worry about the Italian domestic debt. The French solvency is questioned by the international credit rating agency, and yields difference between the risings with German. Once the French ratings were cut, it would be a catastrophic blow for Europe and the world. The author thinks that Europe debt crisis is far from the point of to solve.
PX shift in supply and demand
In addition to the macro side, the outer disk PX falling prices led to PTA cost support gradually weakening, which form the bad influence by prices. Now PX price is close to $1,370/ton which set in early July record, it fell more than 20% and reach $1,735/ton, compared with the mid-September, PTA production enterprise profits to poor starts down, prompted PX demand appears to atrophy. In Asia the production maintenance device start in succession, greatly easing the tension of PX supply. Under the shift in supply and demand situation, PX prices show weakness is also reasonable. The PTA price support will be weakened in the future.
The Downstream polyester demand shrinking
PTA downstream demand shrinking become hinder the rising price of other factors later. Terminal textile industry operating rates continue to decline, reducing the demand for the domestic polyester. Since early October, polyester chip and polyester staple fiber fall to nearly 20% in the short term, such a huge drop in profits led to a drastic shrinkage of the polyester industry, the domestic enterprise purchase PTA enthusiasm declined obviously, most of the companies mainly consume the contract goods, and market delivers atmosphere is insufficient, the goods traders shipment intend to strong, demand can't completely turn for the better before, when spot prices higher, traders selling price formation will be inhibited. Downstream polyester demand weakened, PTA price rising base is not solid, and the space will be under control.
Taking into account the PTA production company focused on limited production price. In the short term, PTA will appear technical rebound. Operationally, the main force contract 1205 suggested empty a single layout between 8,150-8,250 Yuan/ton,
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Editor: sunny From: 168Tex.com
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