Weekly Report on PTA (9/19-9/23)
Author: Sep 26, 2011 08:21
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168Tex News: PTA futures price slumped this week, with the influence of dollar goes strong and crude oil sharply fall. By Friday of the week, PTA main force 1201 contract in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is settled at 9244CNY, dropping by 678CNY/t in compare with that of last Friday, its drop amount is 6.83%.
On spots, PTA quotation mainly keeps stable after it came down on Tuesday. By Friday of the week, quotation in China market has dropped to 10150CNY, which is 400CNY/t lowered down, comparing with that of last Friday, and its drop amount is 3.79%. Taiwan cargo strike price has dropped to $1305, dropping by $55/t, and its drop amount is 4.04%; Korean goods price has totally dropped by $55/t over the week, now it is offered at $1285/t, and its drop amount is 4.1%.
See from PTA spots price, at the beginning of the week, its price slumped by large, then it comes to be stabilized due to a cost support function. Although cost support still exists, PX price is still dropping, thus the cost support function is weakened. In addition with an bearish macro factor and downstream plants have become not that optimistic, end weaving plants are encountering with financial difficulties, resulting in a depressed market, and PTA price is hard to bounce back.
As for PTA devices, Zhuhai BP_900 thousand ton come to a turnaround on 15th, and it is estimated to stop production by 10 days. Shanghai Yadong petrochemical is originally planned to have a turnaround in September, now it has been delayed to October.
Upstream and downstream market situation contrast
Recently, the macro environment becomes worse and worse. With the influence of commodity market becomes vulnerable to inflation and dollar goes strong, crude oil price slumped by large in the week. Now crude oil price has comes close to $80. On Thursday of the week, the Nov deliver crude oil futures price of New York Exchange slumped by $5.41, closing at $80.51/bbl. Brent Nov deliver crude oil futures slumped by $4.78, closing at $105.49/bbl.
With bulk commodity price continue to come down, structural isomerism MX, naphtha and PX price universally slumped by large. Among which, Asian structural isomerism MX price has totally decreased by $54/t to $1328, FOB Korea. Naphtha price has decreased by $46/t to $921. CFR Japan. Asian PX price totally decreased $33/t, to $1699, FOB Korea. European PX price totally decreased by $42/t to $1598, FOB Korea.
On downstream, with upstream feedstock price drops, downstream weaving plants’ stock mounted up, and financial difficulties, poly products price universally dropped. PET bottle chips price has dropped by 200CNY to 13400CNY in the week. By Friday, its strike price is at or below 13200CNY. PET semi-bright chips price has dropped by 200CNY/t to 13000CNY. Poly staple fiber price has dropped to 13800CNY, dropping by 200CNY in compare with that of last Friday. Poly filament yarn price is also decreased. By Friday, FDY50D/48F six-month acceptance is offered at 17900CNY/t, and FDY50D/36F cash take is offered at 17300CNY/t. POY quotation continue to down regulated by 100CNY/t, among which POY75D/72F is offered at 16000CNY/t.
Aftermarket outlook
Currently, worries toward financial still exists. Euro zone debts crisis may probably aggravate worries towards economy recovery, thus will bring down the market demand of PTA. Recently, downstream weaving plants and draw texturing enterprises are not likely to buying in large for covering shortage. Some draw texturizing enterprises even stopped operation, which indicates a even lower demand for PTA feedstock. Although, upstream feedstock cost support still exists, with PX price gradually comes down, its cost support will be weakened, and for there is no favorable macro factors, PTA price is probably continue downward until the national holiday.
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Editor: Candy From: 168Tex.com
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